The art and skill of trading football markets on various betting exchanges has underwent some major evolution over the past decades, and has evolved by leaps and bounds ever since trading betting markets came into being. However, there are certain football trading strategies which continue to deliver results even today. Let’s go over a few of them:
Being well aware of your squads
A good way to put yourself into a favourable position while trading football markets is by gaining good familiarity with the squads representing various clubs, as well as leagues you’re interested in trading on. Being aware of how the absence/presence of a particular player or how a specific lineup will impact the chances of a particular team (or its opposition) in a given football match, can provide you with a major advantage while trading on betting exchanges. Although being aware of a missing unknown player of some lowly performing club may not be headline material, but knowing what the absence of that player may mean for the opposition, as well as the actual potential of his replacement, can provide you with that slight edge.
Understanding match dynamics
In majority of cases, the in-play football markets have quite stubborn prices, especially for a good part of the first half, unless of course, quick goals are scored. But, games wherein you witness a stalemate, with the score line reading 1 – 1 or 0 – 0, you may find the markets moving very slowly. In fact, you’re unlikely to witness any speed in both market and its prices until the second half of the match. Understanding how fast the markets are moving and how the match is actually being played, can serve as an important key to successful trading on football markets.
You may often hear seasoned traders referring to something called ‘time decay.’ Time decay is basically how the passage of time impacts a specific betting market. For instance, what impact another goalless 15 minutes may have on the odds, and the respective prices?
In the similar manner, understanding how competing teams may set up their game with the progression of a match is extremely important. For instance, a team that has had a fairly bad run in the English Premier League club, and is struggling to survive, is more likely to give it all and shut out the game in the early part of the second half, more so if it’s already holding a lead. On the other hand, if the same team is trailing, it may do all it can to open things up and lap up every scoring opportunity.
Understanding how a team may approach the game, at any given point of a football match, can be your key to becoming successful at trading football markets on betting exchanges.
Seeing through market overreactions
If you bet or trade on a regular basis, you’d know about all sorts of overreactions related to clubs’ perceived performances, especially after a team scores an impressive victory, or faces a humiliating loss. This is all the more evident during the early part of the season when traders’ opinions are slightly more fluid.
In-play football betting markets behave the same way. You may see plenty of overreaction as soon as a goal scored, with everyone trying to settle trades at a ‘right price.’ To give you an example, let’s say West Brom scores the opening goal against Liverpool. Hectic trading follows, and after a few moments, West Brom victory price settles at 1.90. However, before it gets settled, the odds get matched anywhere from 1.85 to 1.95.
If you have keen understanding of how market dynamics work, and how goals impact the odds, you can successfully make profitable trades, post any major match event like a goal or a penalty award. You shouldn’t just know what the ideal price should be like, but also know at what price the market is most likely to settle at. This ability may allow you to scalp traders who’re in a mad rush to either exit the market (out of some bad trade), or those who’re desperately seeking some benefit from a favourable position, after a goal has been scored.
Don’t hesitate from laying the draw
One football market trading strategy that has withstood the test of time, is to do with ‘laying the draw.’ Anyone who has even the slightest idea of various football trading strategies capable of delivering results on different betting exchanges, would’ve definitely heard of this one; he’d also be aware of its weaknesses and strengths.
A major reason why ‘lay the draw’ trading strategy has gained immense popularity is because it’s based on the assumption that a goal will indeed be scored in any football match. After all, that’s what most teams play for. This is also how many traders manage to book sure profits. So, when you lay the draw, you’re essentially betting on the possibility that a game will not end in a draw. You’re basically betting that a goal will indeed be scored at some point in the football match. And when that goal is scored indeed, the odds applicable to a draw, will drift, enabling you to back the draw, and lock in a sure-shot profit.
Please keep in mind that all this sounds excellent in theory. However, there are a good number of football matches that don’t witness a single goal! The percentage of such scoreless matches can hover anywhere around 11%, depending on the exact league you’re talking about. It has in fact exactly been that figure (11%) for the Ligue Un for the past so many years. On the other end of the spectrum, Eredivisie has had only 5% of all its matches ending up in a goalless draw. The key to laying a draw lies in selecting football matches where you’re sure that a goal will definitely be scored. An excellent way to do this is by reviewing the odds of Under/Over 2.5 goals market. Any time these odds are short for the over market, it indicates that bookmakers are confident of many goals getting scored in that match.
Please always keep in mind that even if you witness an early goal in a football match, there may not be any corresponding movement in the odds for a draw. More so if the team scoring the first goal is an underdog, simply trying to redeem itself. Any time a club like that scores early, the markets may still believe that the stronger club would soon score an equaliser; and may do so much sooner than later. Hence, it may be best to hold onto your horses, and wait until the draw odds have drifted enough to make it a worthwhile trade for you.
Another approach you can take is that you can bank on the fact that late goals in football matches are far more frequent than suspected by many. This knowledge can make laying draw bets, deep into the second half of a football match (that hasn’t seen a goal) an excellent strategy. The draw odds at this point of the match will be pretty short, and the moment a goal is scored, you may witness a major drift in the odds, giving you just the right opportunity to trade out and book a handsome profit. However, it must be noted that the strike rate of this strategy isn’t very impressive. Hence, you may need plenty of discipline to execute it well.